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Yes, what's happening in the Monty Hall problem is not common knowledge, but it is knowledge about knowledge. To use a fancy term, recursive mentalizing, where mentalizing means getting into someone else's head, trying to figure out what they know. Recursive mentalizing is trying to get inside their head, and when they're trying to get inside your head, as you're trying to get inside their head at an item. So that's common knowledge. In the case of the Monty Hall problem, it's private knowledge,
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Prof. Keating: What happens when that common knowledge is wrong, or even when technologies like artificial intelligence threaten us by hallucination? What happens to the very foundations of what we thought was secure? Me: The answer is we don't know. Track record in general of predicting the downstream consequences of technology are poor. Even the best superforecasters are at chance for cut-and-dry questions five years out, let alone open-ended questions like what will happen to society, let alo
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Why don't we just cut the crap and say it? And the conclusion that I came to, this is an earlier book, The Stuff of Thought (subtitle is Language is a Window into Human Nature), is that direct speech generates common knowledge, and that common knowledge is the basis of our social relationships. Two people--if they're friends, if they're lovers, if they're transactional partners, if they're in a dominance hierarchy--all of those are equilibria in coordination games, and they're matters of common
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