Betting markets gained notoriety in 2024 for accurately predicting Trump's election win. Now, bettors are predicting the path of inflation and trade policy.

The Trump administration's plans for trade tariffs come with inflation risks, three Federal Reserve officials warned on Monday, with one arguing that uncertainty over the outlook for prices calls for slower interest-rate cuts than otherwise.

Are tariffs inflationary? Who will shoulder the increased cost? Will tariffs cause a recession? How do tariffs affect different products?

President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China translated into a shock for market-based inflation expectations, prompting traders to now expect an annual headline rate from the consumer-price index that’s closer to 3% for much of 2025.

Federal Reserve officials are closely watching the levies, given the expectation that such policies could lead to higher prices.

President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on some of the US’s largest agricultural trade partners next month threaten to upend markets and unleash food-price inflation.

The tariffs that President Donald Trump is imposing on Canada, China, and Mexico, the three largest U.S. trading partners, could cost the average American household $1,200 a year at a time when many are desperate for lower prices after years of inflation eating away at their bank accounts.