It should come as little surprise that my NFL Projection Model once again sees the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills as the three best teams in the AFC. What might surprise you, ...

In this report, we present updated results for the macroeconomic projections model from the paper published in 2024 in the Journal of Policy Modeling by one of us and two colleagues, 1 incorporating ...

The Philadelphia Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl champions, so it’s no surprise they’re my NFL Projection Model’s favorite to conquer the NFC again this year, with a 15.5 percent chance at going ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Giovanni Malloy, Ph.d, is a data scientist and sports analyst. As fantasy football drafts get under way from sea to shining sea, ...

Climate models are increasingly used to inform water availability projections at regional scales. However, the models’ own runoff sensitivities—the change in runoff per unit change of precipitation or ...

The increasing frequency of extreme hot events poses significant societal and scientific challenges due to their adverse impacts on human and natural systems, compounded by their unpredictable nature.

We have just published a new preprint — What demographic prediction can and cannot achieve — that argues that the choice of model drives nearly all the variance in long-run demographic projections, ...