Iran, Israel and Oil
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Iran’s state TV just announced that the country has started the second wave of its True Promise Operation Three on Israel tonight. The state TV said that this time the attack is a combination of drones and "more than 100" missiles, with Haifa and Tel Aviv being the main target tonight.
Israeli energy company Bazan said its Haifa oil refinery suffered pipeline and transmission line damage during Iran’s overnight missile barrage. Refining core facilities continue to operate at the site,
Iran said the Shahran oil depot in Tehran was targeted in an Israeli attack on Saturday but that the "situation was under control".
Salem predicts that this attack may push Iran to make a deal with the U.S, "the outlines of which might be that Iran accepts to forgo enrichment inside Iran, with a big deal with the U.S. and the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran and that could obviously lead to a sudden and rapid decline in oil prices, so one has to keep that in mind."
The Iran shock presents two risks to the price of oil, which rose 8 per cent to $74 a barrel on Friday morning, a sizeable jump for a single day. The first is that, in the context of the rising hostilities, Iran’s current crude exports, which have already been softening, could fall further.
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Fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher.
Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports.
Market watchers believe a full-scale disruption of global oil flows by closing the waterway is unlikely, and might even be physically impossible.