Economists and monetary policymakers have been trying to figure out exactly how much U.S. tariffs on goods will affect inflation. That's a task complicated by the evolving tariff situation, as President Trump sends letters to trading partners announcing tariff levels ranging from 20% to 50%.

A fresh batch of inflation risks were emerging in July as President Donald Trump escalated his trade war. Copper prices surged, tariff pressures bubbled up in earnings, and even a morning coffee could be getting more expensive.

Data for June are expected to make it clear that progress in bringing down the inflation rate is over for the foreseeable future as higher tariffs push up prices. While the consumer price indexes for April and May showed limited effects from tariffs,